Primary Growth Driver: Video- By 2014, the sum of TV, VoD, Internet video and peer-to-peer video will continue to exceed 91 percent of global consumer traffic.
- Global Internet video traffic will surpass global peer-to-peer traffic by the end of 2010. For the first time in 10 years, peer-to-peer traffic will not be the largest Internet traffic type.
- The global online video community will include more than 1 billion users by the end of 2010.
- By 2014, it would take more than two years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks every second; to watch all the video crossing the network that year would take 72 million years.
3DTV and HDTV
- Advanced video traffic, including 3DTV and HDTV, is projected to increase 13 times between 2009 and 2014.
- By 2014, 3-D is expected to account for 4 percent of total Internet video traffic.
- By 2014, 3-D and HD video is forecast to comprise 42 percent of total consumer Internet video traffic.
Global Business IP Traffic
- Global business IP traffic is forecast to reach 7.7 exabytes per month in 2014, more than tripling from 2009-2014.
- Business videoconferencing is projected grow tenfold over the forecast period, growing almost three times as fast as overall business IP traffic, at a CAGR of 57 percent from 2009-2014.
- Web-based videoconferencing is the fastest growing sub-category, growing 180-fold from 2009-2014 (183 percent CAGR from 2009-2014).
Global File Sharing
- Global file sharing traffic is projected to reach 11 exabytes per month in 2014, 22 percent CAGR from 2009-2014.
- P2P will grow at a CAGR of 16 percent, while web-based and other file sharing will grow at CAGR of 47 percent from 2009-2014.
- By 2014, global P2P traffic will be 17 percent of global consumer Internet traffic, down from 36 percent in 2009.
Mobile Broadband
- Global mobile data traffic will increase 39 times from 2009 to 2014.
- By 2014, annual global mobile data traffic will reach 3.5 exabytes per month (or a run rate of more than 42 exabytes annually).
Consumer vs. Business
- Consumer IP traffic is projected to grow faster than business:
- For 2009, consumer IP traffic represented 79 percent of monthly total global IP traffic and business IP traffic was 21 percent of monthly total global IP traffic.
- By 2014, consumer IP traffic (web surfing, instant messaging, user-generated videos, etc.) will represent 87 percent of monthly total global IP traffic; while business IP traffic (email, voice, Internet, HD and web-based video conferencing, etc.) will represent 13 percent of monthly total global IP traffic.
Regional Trends
- In 2014, the highest IP-traffic generating regions will be North America (19.0 exabytes per month), Asia Pacific (17.4 exabytes per month), Western Europe (16.2 exabytes per month) and Japan (4.3 exabytes per month).
- The fastest growing IP-traffic regions for the 2009-2014 period will be Latin America (51 percent compound annual growth rate [CAGR], 7.9-fold growth), the Middle East and Africa (45 percent CAGR, 6.5-fold growth), and Central Europe (38 percent CAGR, 5.1-fold growth).
Network Speed Enables IP Traffic Growth: 2000 vs. 2010 Comparison
- In just a decade, the average global residential Internet connection download speed has increased 35 times, which has helped to dramatically increase Internet usage.
- In 2000, the average global residential Internet connection download speed was 127 kilobits per second (Kbps). The current (2010) average global residential Internet connection download speed is 4.4 megabits per second (Mbps.)
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