The Fiber Train Is Finally Starting to Slow

REDWOOD CITY, CA — The “fiber train” is finally starting to slow as PON equipment revenue declined 9 percent year-over-year (Y/Y) in 3Q17, the fourth consecutive quarter of decline. This data comes from a recently published report from Dell’Oro Group, a market research firm that specializes in strategic competitive analysis in the telecommunications, networks, and data center IT markets.

“Demand in China has been the strongest driver in the PON market over the past decade, accounting for over half of worldwide demand in recent years,” said Alam Tamboli, senior analyst at Dell’Oro Group. “However, demand in China has begun to slow over the past few quarters, bringing the market down as a whole. This decline is due to OLT port deployments moderating, as China Telecom and China Unicom have largely built out their GPON OLT infrastructure. On a bright note, demand outside of China continued to increase this quarter, and as the market shifts to customers outside of China, we expect the market’s revenue profile to start stabilizing,” Tamboli added.

Additional highlights from the 3Q17 Broadband Access Quarterly Report:

  • For the full year 2017, Dell’Oro Group expects total PON revenue will decline by 11 percent Y/Y.

  • Total DSL revenue shrank nine percent Y/Y. deployments have not ramped enough to help offset declines in ADSL and tepid results in VDSL.

  • Total Cable revenue increased 10 percent Y/Y due to CPE revenue growth driven by the migration to DOCSIS 3.1 services.



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